{"id":25,"date":"2021-01-12T22:19:24","date_gmt":"2021-01-12T22:19:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/chapter\/definitions-of-statistics-probability-and-key-terms\/"},"modified":"2021-05-12T18:43:54","modified_gmt":"2021-05-12T18:43:54","slug":"definitions-of-statistics-probability-and-key-terms","status":"publish","type":"chapter","link":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/chapter\/definitions-of-statistics-probability-and-key-terms\/","title":{"rendered":"Definitions of Statistics, Probability, and Key Terms"},"content":{"raw":"<span style=\"display: none;\">\r\n[latexpage]\r\n<\/span>\r\nThe science of <strong><span id=\"term1\" data-type=\"term\">statistics<\/span><\/strong> deals with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of <strong><span id=\"term2\" data-type=\"term\">data<\/span><\/strong>. We see and use data in our everyday lives.\r\n\r\nIn this course, you will learn how to organize and summarize data. Organizing and summarizing data is called <strong><span id=\"term3\" data-type=\"term\">descriptive statistics<\/span><\/strong>. Two ways to summarize data are by graphing and by using numbers (for example, finding an average). After you have studied probability and probability distributions, you will use formal methods for drawing conclusions from \"good\" data. The formal methods are called <strong><span id=\"term4\" data-type=\"term\">inferential statistics<\/span><\/strong>. Statistical inference uses probability to determine how confident we can be that our conclusions are correct.\r\n\r\nEffective interpretation of data (inference) is based on good procedures for producing data and thoughtful examination of the data. You will encounter what will seem to be too many mathematical formulas for interpreting data. The goal of statistics is not to perform numerous calculations using the formulas, but to gain an understanding of your data. The calculations can be done using a calculator or a computer. The understanding must come from you. If you can thoroughly grasp the basics of statistics, you can be more confident in the decisions you make in life.\r\n<h3>Probability<\/h3>\r\n<strong><span id=\"term5\" data-type=\"term\">Probability<\/span><\/strong> is a mathematical tool used to study randomness. It deals with the chance (the likelihood) of an event occurring. For example, if you toss a <strong>fair<\/strong> coin four times, the outcomes may not be two heads and two tails. However, if you toss the same coin 4,000 times, the outcomes will be close to half heads and half tails. The expected theoretical probability of heads in any one toss is <span id=\"MathJax-Element-1-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"presentation\" data-mathml=\"&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;math xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML&quot; display=&quot;inline&quot;&gt;&lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mfrac&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;\/mfrac&gt;&lt;\/mrow&gt;&lt;\/mrow&gt;&lt;annotation-xml encoding=&quot;MathML-Content&quot;&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mfrac&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;\/mfrac&gt;&lt;\/mrow&gt;&lt;\/annotation-xml&gt;&lt;\/semantics&gt;&lt;\/math&gt; &lt;p&gt;\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-1\" class=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-2\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-3\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-4\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-5\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-6\" class=\"mfrac\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-7\" class=\"mn\">$\\frac{1}{2}$<\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-8\" class=\"mn\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> or 0.5. Even though the outcomes of a few repetitions are uncertain, there is a regular pattern of outcomes when there are many repetitions. After reading about the English statistician Karl <strong><span id=\"term6\" data-type=\"term\">Pearson<\/span><\/strong> who tossed a coin 24,000 times with a result of 12,012 heads, one of the authors tossed a coin 2,000 times. The results were 996 heads. The fraction \\(\\frac{996}{2000}\\) is equal to 0.498 which is very close to 0.5, the expected probability.\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm51841168\">The theory of probability began with the study of games of chance such as poker. Predictions take the form of probabilities. To predict the likelihood of an earthquake, of rain, or whether you will get an A in this course, we use probabilities. Doctors use probability to determine the chance of a vaccination causing the disease the vaccination is supposed to prevent. A stockbroker uses probability to determine the rate of return on a client's investments. You might use probability to decide to buy a lottery ticket or not. In your study of statistics, you will use the power of mathematics through probability calculations to analyze and interpret your data.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<h3>Key Terms<\/h3>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm63797184\">In statistics, we generally want to study a <span id=\"term7\" data-type=\"term\">population<\/span>. You can think of a population as a collection of persons, things, or objects under study. To study the population, we select a <span id=\"term8\" data-type=\"term\">sample<\/span>. The idea of <span id=\"term9\" data-type=\"term\">sampling<\/span> is to select a portion (or subset) of the larger population and study that portion (the sample) to gain information about the population. Data are the result of sampling from a population.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp7610128\">Because it takes a lot of time and money to examine an entire population, sampling is a very practical technique. If you wished to compute the overall grade point average at your school, it would make sense to select a sample of students who attend the school. The data collected from the sample would be the students' grade point averages. In presidential elections, opinion poll samples of 1,000\u20132,000 people are taken. The opinion poll is supposed to represent the views of the people in the entire country. Manufacturers of canned carbonated drinks take samples to determine if a 16 ounce can contains 16 ounces of carbonated drink.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm52897344\">From the sample data, we can calculate a statistic. A <span id=\"term10\" data-type=\"term\">statistic<\/span> is a number that represents a property of the sample. For example, if we consider one math class to be a sample of the population of all math classes, then the average number of points earned by students in that one math class at the end of the term is an example of a statistic. The statistic is an estimate of a population parameter. A <span id=\"term11\" data-type=\"term\">parameter<\/span> is a numerical characteristic of the whole population that can be estimated by a statistic. Since we considered all math classes to be the population, then the average number of points earned per student over all the math classes is an example of a parameter.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm69156368\">One of the main concerns in the field of statistics is how accurately a statistic estimates a parameter. The accuracy really depends on how well the sample represents the population. The sample must contain the characteristics of the population in order to be a <span id=\"term12\" data-type=\"term\">representative sample<\/span>. We are interested in both the sample statistic and the population parameter in inferential statistics. In a later chapter, we will use the sample statistic to test the validity of the established population parameter.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm62450928\">A <span id=\"term13\" data-type=\"term\">variable<\/span>, usually notated by capital letters such as <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> and <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em>, is a characteristic or measurement that can be determined for each member of a population. Variables may be <strong>numerical<\/strong> or <strong>categorical<\/strong>. <span id=\"term14\" data-type=\"term\">Numerical variables<\/span> take on values with equal units such as weight in pounds and time in hours. <span id=\"term15\" data-type=\"term\">Categorical variables<\/span> place the person or thing into a category. If we let <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> equal the number of points earned by one math student at the end of a term, then <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> is a numerical variable. If we let <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> be a person's party affiliation, then some examples of <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> include Republican, Democrat, and Independent. <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> is a categorical variable. We could do some math with values of <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> (calculate the average number of points earned, for example), but it makes no sense to do math with values of <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> (calculating an average party affiliation makes no sense).<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm69507040\"><span id=\"term16\" data-type=\"term\">Data<\/span> are the actual values of the variable. They may be numbers or they may be words. <strong>Datum<\/strong> is a single value.<\/p>\r\nTwo words that come up often in statistics are <span id=\"term17\" data-type=\"term\">mean<\/span> and <span id=\"term18\" data-type=\"term\">proportion<\/span>. If you were to take three exams in your math classes and obtain scores of 86, 75, and 92, you would calculate your mean score by adding the three exam scores and dividing by three (your mean score would be 84.3 to one decimal place). If, in your math class, there are 40 students and 22 are men and 18 are women, then the proportion of men students is $\\frac{22}{40}$ and the proportion of women students is $\\frac{18}{40}$. Mean and proportion are discussed in more detail in later chapters.\r\n<div id=\"cb418599-f69b-46c1-b0ef-60d9e36e677f\" class=\"chapter-content-module\" data-type=\"page\" data-cnxml-to-html-ver=\"2.1.0\"><section id=\"eip-159\" data-depth=\"1\">\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp118463488\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"note\" data-has-label=\"true\" data-label=\"\"><header>\r\n<h3 class=\"os-title\" data-type=\"title\"><span id=\"3\" class=\"os-title-label\" data-type=\"\">NOTE<\/span><\/h3>\r\n<\/header><section>\r\n<div class=\"os-note-body\">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm25880032\">The words \"<span id=\"term19\" data-type=\"term\">mean<\/span>\" and \"<span id=\"term20\" data-type=\"term\">average<\/span>\" are often used interchangeably. The substitution of one word for the other is common practice. The technical term is \"arithmetic mean,\" and \"average\" is technically a center location. However, in practice among non-statisticians, \"average\" is commonly accepted for \"arithmetic mean.\"<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm41492224\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\"><header>\r\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/h3>\r\n<\/header><section>\r\n<div class=\"body\">\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm10444032\" class=\" unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\"><header><\/header><section>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm63060112\" data-type=\"problem\">\r\n<div class=\"os-problem-container \">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm51690528\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study. We want to know the average (mean) amount of money first year college students spend at ABC College on school supplies that do not include books. We randomly surveyed 100 first year students at the college. Three of those students spent \\$150, \\$200, and \\$225, respectively.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm78922624\" class=\" ui-solution-visible\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"hide solution\" aria-expanded=\"true\">\r\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\r\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: visible; height: auto;\" role=\"alert\">\r\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/h4>\r\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm66686064\">The <strong>population<\/strong> is all first year students attending ABC College this term.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm40196160\">The <strong>sample<\/strong> could be all students enrolled in one section of a beginning statistics course at ABC College (although this sample may not represent the entire population).<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm58257248\">The <strong>parameter<\/strong> is the average (mean) amount of money spent (excluding books) by first year college students at ABC College this term.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm56787136\">The <strong>statistic<\/strong> is the average (mean) amount of money spent (excluding books) by first year college students in the sample.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm39343328\">The <strong>variable<\/strong> could be the amount of money spent (excluding books) by one first year student. Let <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> = the amount of money spent (excluding books) by one first year student attending ABC College.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm9924960\">The <strong>data<\/strong> are the dollar amounts spent by the first year students. Examples of the data are \\$150, \\$200, and \\$225.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp138853216\" class=\"statistics try ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"note\" data-has-label=\"true\" data-label=\"\"><header>\r\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Try It <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/h3>\r\n<\/header><section>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp65729424\" class=\" unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\"><header><\/header><section>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp121971984\" data-type=\"problem\">\r\n<div class=\"os-problem-container \">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm19818720\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study. We want to know the average (mean) amount of money spent on school uniforms each year by families with children at Knoll Academy. We randomly survey 100 families with children in the school. Three of the families spent \\$65, \\$75, and \\$95, respectively.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm42503168\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\"><header>\r\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.2<\/span><\/h3>\r\n<\/header><section>\r\n<div class=\"body\">\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm125077712\" class=\" unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\"><header><\/header><section>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm36699520\" data-type=\"problem\">\r\n<div class=\"os-problem-container \">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm41922176\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm14780304\">A study was conducted at a local college to analyze the average cumulative GPA\u2019s of students who graduated last year. Fill in the letter of the phrase that best describes each of the items below.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm49702528\">1. Population_____ 2. Statistic _____ 3. Parameter _____ 4. Sample _____ 5. Variable _____ 6. Data _____<\/p>\r\n\r\n<ol id=\"fs-idm9097856\" type=\"a\">\r\n \t<li>all students who attended the college last year<\/li>\r\n \t<li>the cumulative GPA of one student who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\r\n \t<li>3.65, 2.80, 1.50, 3.90<\/li>\r\n \t<li>a group of students who graduated from the college last year, randomly selected<\/li>\r\n \t<li>the average cumulative GPA of students who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\r\n \t<li>all students who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\r\n \t<li>the average cumulative GPA of students in the study who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm17652592\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"show solution\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\r\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\r\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: hidden;\" role=\"alert\">\r\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.2<\/span><\/h4>\r\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm53173376\"><span id=\"5\" data-type=\"list\" data-list-type=\"labeled-item\" data-display=\"inline\">\r\n<span data-type=\"item\">1. f<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span>\r\n<span data-type=\"item\">2. g<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span>\r\n<span data-type=\"item\">3. e<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span>\r\n<span data-type=\"item\">4. d<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span>\r\n<span data-type=\"item\">5. b<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span>\r\n<span data-type=\"item\">6. c<\/span>\r\n<\/span><\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm70107152\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\"><header>\r\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.3<\/span><\/h3>\r\n<\/header><section>\r\n<div class=\"body\">\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm53269072\" class=\" unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\"><header><\/header><section>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm41679344\" data-type=\"problem\">\r\n<div class=\"os-problem-container \">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm53163856\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm19702944\">As part of a study designed to test the safety of automobiles, the National Transportation Safety Board collected and reviewed data about the effects of an automobile crash on test dummies. Here is the criterion they used:<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"ch01_mod01_tbl003\" class=\"os-table \">\r\n<table summary=\"Table 1.1 \" data-id=\"ch01_mod01_tbl003\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>Speed at which Cars Crashed<\/td>\r\n<td>Location of \u201cdrive\u201d (i.e. dummies)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>35 miles\/hour<\/td>\r\n<td>Front Seat<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<div class=\"os-caption-container\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Table <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm69168288\">Cars with dummies in the front seats were crashed into a wall at a speed of 35 miles per hour. We want to know the proportion of dummies in the driver\u2019s seat that would have had head injuries, if they had been actual drivers. We start with a simple random sample of 75 cars.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm69138080\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"show solution\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\r\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\r\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: hidden;\" role=\"alert\">\r\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.3<\/span><\/h4>\r\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm32368\">The <strong>population<\/strong> is all cars containing dummies in the front seat.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm42507664\">The <strong>sample<\/strong> is the 75 cars, selected by a simple random sample.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm45479952\">The <strong>parameter<\/strong> is the proportion of driver dummies (if they had been real people) who would have suffered head injuries in the population.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm59321456\">The <strong>statistic<\/strong> is proportion of driver dummies (if they had been real people) who would have suffered head injuries in the sample.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm41923744\">The <strong>variable<\/strong> <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> = the number of driver dummies (if they had been real people) who would have suffered head injuries.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm77048688\">The <strong>data<\/strong> are either: yes, had head injury, or no, did not.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm64455456\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\"><header>\r\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.4<\/span><\/h3>\r\n<\/header><section>\r\n<div class=\"body\">\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm55175232\" class=\" unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\"><header><\/header><section>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm56962416\" data-type=\"problem\">\r\n<div class=\"os-problem-container \">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm74506992\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm35536880\">An insurance company would like to determine the proportion of all medical doctors\r\nwho have been involved in one or more malpractice lawsuits. The company selects\r\n500 doctors at random from a professional directory and determines the number in\r\nthe sample who have been involved in a malpractice lawsuit.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idm36890624\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"show solution\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\r\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\r\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: hidden;\" role=\"alert\">\r\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.4<\/span><\/h4>\r\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm43486032\">The <strong>population<\/strong> is all medical doctors listed in the professional directory.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp3077328\">The <strong>parameter<\/strong> is the proportion of medical doctors who have been involved in one or more malpractice suits in the population.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm45173104\">The <strong>sample<\/strong> is the 500 doctors selected at random from the professional directory.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp4875616\">The <strong>statistic<\/strong> is the proportion of medical doctors who have been involved in one or more malpractice suits in the sample.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm52360480\">The <strong>variable<\/strong> <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> = the number of medical doctors who have been involved in one or more malpractice suits.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm41698096\">The <strong>data<\/strong> are either: yes, was involved in one or more malpractice lawsuits, or no, was not.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/div>","rendered":"<p><span style=\"display: none;\"><br \/>\n[latexpage]<br \/>\n<\/span><br \/>\nThe science of <strong><span id=\"term1\" data-type=\"term\">statistics<\/span><\/strong> deals with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of <strong><span id=\"term2\" data-type=\"term\">data<\/span><\/strong>. We see and use data in our everyday lives.<\/p>\n<p>In this course, you will learn how to organize and summarize data. Organizing and summarizing data is called <strong><span id=\"term3\" data-type=\"term\">descriptive statistics<\/span><\/strong>. Two ways to summarize data are by graphing and by using numbers (for example, finding an average). After you have studied probability and probability distributions, you will use formal methods for drawing conclusions from &#8220;good&#8221; data. The formal methods are called <strong><span id=\"term4\" data-type=\"term\">inferential statistics<\/span><\/strong>. Statistical inference uses probability to determine how confident we can be that our conclusions are correct.<\/p>\n<p>Effective interpretation of data (inference) is based on good procedures for producing data and thoughtful examination of the data. You will encounter what will seem to be too many mathematical formulas for interpreting data. The goal of statistics is not to perform numerous calculations using the formulas, but to gain an understanding of your data. The calculations can be done using a calculator or a computer. The understanding must come from you. If you can thoroughly grasp the basics of statistics, you can be more confident in the decisions you make in life.<\/p>\n<h3>Probability<\/h3>\n<p><strong><span id=\"term5\" data-type=\"term\">Probability<\/span><\/strong> is a mathematical tool used to study randomness. It deals with the chance (the likelihood) of an event occurring. For example, if you toss a <strong>fair<\/strong> coin four times, the outcomes may not be two heads and two tails. However, if you toss the same coin 4,000 times, the outcomes will be close to half heads and half tails. The expected theoretical probability of heads in any one toss is <span id=\"MathJax-Element-1-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"presentation\" data-mathml=\"&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;math xmlns=&quot;http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML&quot; display=&quot;inline&quot;&gt;&lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mfrac&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;\/mfrac&gt;&lt;\/mrow&gt;&lt;\/mrow&gt;&lt;annotation-xml encoding=&quot;MathML-Content&quot;&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mfrac&gt;&lt;mn&gt;1&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;\/mn&gt;&lt;\/mfrac&gt;&lt;\/mrow&gt;&lt;\/annotation-xml&gt;&lt;\/semantics&gt;&lt;\/math&gt; &lt;p&gt;\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-1\" class=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-2\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-3\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-4\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-5\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-6\" class=\"mfrac\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-7\" class=\"mn\">$\\frac{1}{2}$<\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-8\" class=\"mn\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> or 0.5. Even though the outcomes of a few repetitions are uncertain, there is a regular pattern of outcomes when there are many repetitions. After reading about the English statistician Karl <strong><span id=\"term6\" data-type=\"term\">Pearson<\/span><\/strong> who tossed a coin 24,000 times with a result of 12,012 heads, one of the authors tossed a coin 2,000 times. The results were 996 heads. The fraction \\(\\frac{996}{2000}\\) is equal to 0.498 which is very close to 0.5, the expected probability.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm51841168\">The theory of probability began with the study of games of chance such as poker. Predictions take the form of probabilities. To predict the likelihood of an earthquake, of rain, or whether you will get an A in this course, we use probabilities. Doctors use probability to determine the chance of a vaccination causing the disease the vaccination is supposed to prevent. A stockbroker uses probability to determine the rate of return on a client&#8217;s investments. You might use probability to decide to buy a lottery ticket or not. In your study of statistics, you will use the power of mathematics through probability calculations to analyze and interpret your data.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Terms<\/h3>\n<p id=\"fs-idm63797184\">In statistics, we generally want to study a <span id=\"term7\" data-type=\"term\">population<\/span>. You can think of a population as a collection of persons, things, or objects under study. To study the population, we select a <span id=\"term8\" data-type=\"term\">sample<\/span>. The idea of <span id=\"term9\" data-type=\"term\">sampling<\/span> is to select a portion (or subset) of the larger population and study that portion (the sample) to gain information about the population. Data are the result of sampling from a population.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp7610128\">Because it takes a lot of time and money to examine an entire population, sampling is a very practical technique. If you wished to compute the overall grade point average at your school, it would make sense to select a sample of students who attend the school. The data collected from the sample would be the students&#8217; grade point averages. In presidential elections, opinion poll samples of 1,000\u20132,000 people are taken. The opinion poll is supposed to represent the views of the people in the entire country. Manufacturers of canned carbonated drinks take samples to determine if a 16 ounce can contains 16 ounces of carbonated drink.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm52897344\">From the sample data, we can calculate a statistic. A <span id=\"term10\" data-type=\"term\">statistic<\/span> is a number that represents a property of the sample. For example, if we consider one math class to be a sample of the population of all math classes, then the average number of points earned by students in that one math class at the end of the term is an example of a statistic. The statistic is an estimate of a population parameter. A <span id=\"term11\" data-type=\"term\">parameter<\/span> is a numerical characteristic of the whole population that can be estimated by a statistic. Since we considered all math classes to be the population, then the average number of points earned per student over all the math classes is an example of a parameter.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm69156368\">One of the main concerns in the field of statistics is how accurately a statistic estimates a parameter. The accuracy really depends on how well the sample represents the population. The sample must contain the characteristics of the population in order to be a <span id=\"term12\" data-type=\"term\">representative sample<\/span>. We are interested in both the sample statistic and the population parameter in inferential statistics. In a later chapter, we will use the sample statistic to test the validity of the established population parameter.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm62450928\">A <span id=\"term13\" data-type=\"term\">variable<\/span>, usually notated by capital letters such as <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> and <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em>, is a characteristic or measurement that can be determined for each member of a population. Variables may be <strong>numerical<\/strong> or <strong>categorical<\/strong>. <span id=\"term14\" data-type=\"term\">Numerical variables<\/span> take on values with equal units such as weight in pounds and time in hours. <span id=\"term15\" data-type=\"term\">Categorical variables<\/span> place the person or thing into a category. If we let <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> equal the number of points earned by one math student at the end of a term, then <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> is a numerical variable. If we let <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> be a person&#8217;s party affiliation, then some examples of <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> include Republican, Democrat, and Independent. <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> is a categorical variable. We could do some math with values of <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> (calculate the average number of points earned, for example), but it makes no sense to do math with values of <em data-effect=\"italics\">Y<\/em> (calculating an average party affiliation makes no sense).<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm69507040\"><span id=\"term16\" data-type=\"term\">Data<\/span> are the actual values of the variable. They may be numbers or they may be words. <strong>Datum<\/strong> is a single value.<\/p>\n<p>Two words that come up often in statistics are <span id=\"term17\" data-type=\"term\">mean<\/span> and <span id=\"term18\" data-type=\"term\">proportion<\/span>. If you were to take three exams in your math classes and obtain scores of 86, 75, and 92, you would calculate your mean score by adding the three exam scores and dividing by three (your mean score would be 84.3 to one decimal place). If, in your math class, there are 40 students and 22 are men and 18 are women, then the proportion of men students is $\\frac{22}{40}$ and the proportion of women students is $\\frac{18}{40}$. Mean and proportion are discussed in more detail in later chapters.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cb418599-f69b-46c1-b0ef-60d9e36e677f\" class=\"chapter-content-module\" data-type=\"page\" data-cnxml-to-html-ver=\"2.1.0\">\n<section id=\"eip-159\" data-depth=\"1\">\n<div id=\"fs-idp118463488\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"note\" data-has-label=\"true\" data-label=\"\">\n<header>\n<h3 class=\"os-title\" data-type=\"title\"><span id=\"3\" class=\"os-title-label\" data-type=\"\">NOTE<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<div class=\"os-note-body\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm25880032\">The words &#8220;<span id=\"term19\" data-type=\"term\">mean<\/span>&#8221; and &#8220;<span id=\"term20\" data-type=\"term\">average<\/span>&#8221; are often used interchangeably. The substitution of one word for the other is common practice. The technical term is &#8220;arithmetic mean,&#8221; and &#8220;average&#8221; is technically a center location. However, in practice among non-statisticians, &#8220;average&#8221; is commonly accepted for &#8220;arithmetic mean.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm41492224\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\">\n<header>\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div id=\"fs-idm10444032\" class=\"unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\">\n<header><\/header>\n<section>\n<div id=\"fs-idm63060112\" data-type=\"problem\">\n<div class=\"os-problem-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm51690528\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study. We want to know the average (mean) amount of money first year college students spend at ABC College on school supplies that do not include books. We randomly surveyed 100 first year students at the college. Three of those students spent \\$150, \\$200, and \\$225, respectively.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm78922624\" class=\"ui-solution-visible\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"hide solution\" aria-expanded=\"true\">\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: visible; height: auto;\" role=\"alert\">\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/h4>\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm66686064\">The <strong>population<\/strong> is all first year students attending ABC College this term.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm40196160\">The <strong>sample<\/strong> could be all students enrolled in one section of a beginning statistics course at ABC College (although this sample may not represent the entire population).<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm58257248\">The <strong>parameter<\/strong> is the average (mean) amount of money spent (excluding books) by first year college students at ABC College this term.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm56787136\">The <strong>statistic<\/strong> is the average (mean) amount of money spent (excluding books) by first year college students in the sample.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm39343328\">The <strong>variable<\/strong> could be the amount of money spent (excluding books) by one first year student. Let <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> = the amount of money spent (excluding books) by one first year student attending ABC College.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm9924960\">The <strong>data<\/strong> are the dollar amounts spent by the first year students. Examples of the data are \\$150, \\$200, and \\$225.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idp138853216\" class=\"statistics try ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"note\" data-has-label=\"true\" data-label=\"\">\n<header>\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Try It <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<div id=\"fs-idp65729424\" class=\"unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\">\n<header><\/header>\n<section>\n<div id=\"fs-idp121971984\" data-type=\"problem\">\n<div class=\"os-problem-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm19818720\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study. We want to know the average (mean) amount of money spent on school uniforms each year by families with children at Knoll Academy. We randomly survey 100 families with children in the school. Three of the families spent \\$65, \\$75, and \\$95, respectively.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm42503168\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\">\n<header>\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.2<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div id=\"fs-idm125077712\" class=\"unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\">\n<header><\/header>\n<section>\n<div id=\"fs-idm36699520\" data-type=\"problem\">\n<div class=\"os-problem-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm41922176\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm14780304\">A study was conducted at a local college to analyze the average cumulative GPA\u2019s of students who graduated last year. Fill in the letter of the phrase that best describes each of the items below.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm49702528\">1. Population_____ 2. Statistic _____ 3. Parameter _____ 4. Sample _____ 5. Variable _____ 6. Data _____<\/p>\n<ol id=\"fs-idm9097856\" type=\"a\">\n<li>all students who attended the college last year<\/li>\n<li>the cumulative GPA of one student who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\n<li>3.65, 2.80, 1.50, 3.90<\/li>\n<li>a group of students who graduated from the college last year, randomly selected<\/li>\n<li>the average cumulative GPA of students who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\n<li>all students who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\n<li>the average cumulative GPA of students in the study who graduated from the college last year<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm17652592\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"show solution\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: hidden;\" role=\"alert\">\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.2<\/span><\/h4>\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm53173376\"><span id=\"5\" data-type=\"list\" data-list-type=\"labeled-item\" data-display=\"inline\"><br \/>\n<span data-type=\"item\">1. f<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<span data-type=\"item\">2. g<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<span data-type=\"item\">3. e<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<span data-type=\"item\">4. d<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<span data-type=\"item\">5. b<span class=\"-os-inline-list-separator\">; <\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<span data-type=\"item\">6. c<\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm70107152\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\">\n<header>\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.3<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div id=\"fs-idm53269072\" class=\"unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\">\n<header><\/header>\n<section>\n<div id=\"fs-idm41679344\" data-type=\"problem\">\n<div class=\"os-problem-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm53163856\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm19702944\">As part of a study designed to test the safety of automobiles, the National Transportation Safety Board collected and reviewed data about the effects of an automobile crash on test dummies. Here is the criterion they used:<\/p>\n<div id=\"ch01_mod01_tbl003\" class=\"os-table\">\n<table summary=\"Table 1.1\" data-id=\"ch01_mod01_tbl003\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Speed at which Cars Crashed<\/td>\n<td>Location of \u201cdrive\u201d (i.e. dummies)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>35 miles\/hour<\/td>\n<td>Front Seat<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<div class=\"os-caption-container\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Table <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.1<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"fs-idm69168288\">Cars with dummies in the front seats were crashed into a wall at a speed of 35 miles per hour. We want to know the proportion of dummies in the driver\u2019s seat that would have had head injuries, if they had been actual drivers. We start with a simple random sample of 75 cars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm69138080\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"show solution\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: hidden;\" role=\"alert\">\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.3<\/span><\/h4>\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm32368\">The <strong>population<\/strong> is all cars containing dummies in the front seat.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm42507664\">The <strong>sample<\/strong> is the 75 cars, selected by a simple random sample.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm45479952\">The <strong>parameter<\/strong> is the proportion of driver dummies (if they had been real people) who would have suffered head injuries in the population.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm59321456\">The <strong>statistic<\/strong> is proportion of driver dummies (if they had been real people) who would have suffered head injuries in the sample.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm41923744\">The <strong>variable<\/strong> <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> = the number of driver dummies (if they had been real people) who would have suffered head injuries.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm77048688\">The <strong>data<\/strong> are either: yes, had head injury, or no, did not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm64455456\" class=\"ui-has-child-title\" data-type=\"example\">\n<header>\n<h3 class=\"os-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Example <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.4<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div id=\"fs-idm55175232\" class=\"unnumbered\" data-type=\"exercise\">\n<header><\/header>\n<section>\n<div id=\"fs-idm56962416\" data-type=\"problem\">\n<div class=\"os-problem-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm74506992\">Determine what the key terms refer to in the following study.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm35536880\">An insurance company would like to determine the proportion of all medical doctors<br \/>\nwho have been involved in one or more malpractice lawsuits. The company selects<br \/>\n500 doctors at random from a professional directory and determines the number in<br \/>\nthe sample who have been involved in a malpractice lawsuit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idm36890624\" data-type=\"solution\" aria-label=\"show solution\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n<div class=\"ui-toggle-wrapper\"><\/div>\n<section class=\"ui-body\" style=\"display: block; overflow: hidden;\" role=\"alert\">\n<h4 data-type=\"solution-title\"><span class=\"os-title-label\">Solution <\/span><span class=\"os-number\">1.4<\/span><\/h4>\n<div class=\"os-solution-container\">\n<p id=\"fs-idm43486032\">The <strong>population<\/strong> is all medical doctors listed in the professional directory.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp3077328\">The <strong>parameter<\/strong> is the proportion of medical doctors who have been involved in one or more malpractice suits in the population.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm45173104\">The <strong>sample<\/strong> is the 500 doctors selected at random from the professional directory.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp4875616\">The <strong>statistic<\/strong> is the proportion of medical doctors who have been involved in one or more malpractice suits in the sample.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm52360480\">The <strong>variable<\/strong> <em data-effect=\"italics\">X<\/em> = the number of medical doctors who have been involved in one or more malpractice suits.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm41698096\">The <strong>data<\/strong> are either: yes, was involved in one or more malpractice lawsuits, or no, was not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"menu_order":1,"template":"","meta":{"pb_show_title":"on","pb_short_title":"","pb_subtitle":"","pb_authors":[],"pb_section_license":""},"chapter-type":[47],"contributor":[],"license":[],"class_list":["post-25","chapter","type-chapter","status-publish","hentry","chapter-type-standard"],"part":23,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/25","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/chapter"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/25\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":412,"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/25\/revisions\/412"}],"part":[{"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/parts\/23"}],"metadata":[{"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapters\/25\/metadata\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"chapter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/pressbooks\/v2\/chapter-type?post=25"},{"taxonomy":"contributor","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributor?post=25"},{"taxonomy":"license","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/textbooks.jaykesler.net\/introstats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/license?post=25"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}